The Best Indicator of the Future…

…is the past.

The whole country, most of the world even, is currently discussing Syria. Will America or won’t it?

There have been plenty of arguments made for why we should or should not involve ourself in the Syrian Civil War. Allow me, if you will, to point out a slightly different one.

LIBYA.

30-libya-afpgt

Yet now Libya has almost entirely stopped producing oil as the government loses control of much of the country to militia fighters…

Mutinying security men have taken over oil ports on the Mediterranean and are seeking to sell crude oil on the black market. Ali Zeidan, Libya’s Prime Minister, has threatened to “bomb from the air and the sea” any oil tanker trying to pick up the illicit oil from the oil terminal guards…

Government authority is disintegrating in all parts of the country putting in doubt claims by American, British and French politicians that Nato’s military action in Libya in 2011 was an outstanding example of a successful foreign military intervention which should be repeated in Syria.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/special-report-we-all-thought-libya-had-moved-on–it-has-but-into-lawlessness-and-ruin-8797041.html

I almost don’t need to say anymore. But I will. The Middle East is a FUBARed Clusterf*ck. You not only have religious fights, but you can mix in some tribalism as well. This stuff dates back not hundreds, but thousands of years. You’re not going to solve it. I’m not going to solve it. The United States government isn’t going to solve it.

I can’t think of a single example of the US Government stepping in and going hands on with a ME situation and that situation working out to our best interests. Can you?

I was born in 1981, so my range is admittedly limited.

The Shah of Iran?

The First Gulf War?

The Second Gulf War? (I’m sure there are arguments to be made all over the map on the toppling of Saddam and that aftermath.)

Near constant meddling with the Israel/Palestine situation?

Libya?

Egypt?

I’m sure you kind folks can supply even more examples. But as far as I can tell, nearly every single time the US involves itself in the Middle East it ultimately leads to a situation worse for US interests.

At this point, I’m against going into Syria, in any capacity, solely because in the long term we’ll screw it up.

Sometimes, people have to solve their own problems. And you know what? It’s not always pretty. But us sticking our noses in a country’s internal issues is not likely to endear us to either side.

What do you think would have happened had a European country decided to involve itself, in an official military capacity, in the American Civil War?

That’s exactly what the President is suggesting now.

I vote No.

2 thoughts on “The Best Indicator of the Future…

  1. Pingback: Marginally Honorable Chairman: Libya as a Predictor of Syrian Success? | akula51 dot net

  2. 1981????

    I believe that’s my lawn you’re standing on…

    but you are absolutely correct. So far nothing we have done there has worked out well for us, I think it’s because we make the mistake of assuming they think like Europeans.

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